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Prediction for CME (2016-11-05T04:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-11-05T04:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/11494/-1
CME Note: Filament Eruption off the northern Hemisphere giving a very wide-angle partial halo. Another CME came off the farside and eastern limb at a similar time. Evident in SOHO and STEREO imagery after 05/0200UTC.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-11-09T05:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-11-08T19:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2016 Nov 06 1103 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A partial halo CME is visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 images from 00:00 UT onwards on November 5. The ejection is mostly directed towards the North-East and has an angular extent of 200 degrees (although the North-East component is only very faint, causing Cactus to underestimate the angular extent). The speed is measured to be at most 400 km/s. The origin of the event is most likely be related to the filament eruption around 00:00 UT November 5, in the North-Western quadrant. Hence, Earth may experience the passage of the flanks of the CME late on November 8. Given the low speed and the direction of the CME effects are estimated not to be very strong with possibly minor up to moderate geomagnetic storms.
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Lead Time: 66.30 hour(s)
Difference: 10.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2016-11-06T11:10Z

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